Learn · Topic
News and fundamentals
Interest rates, inflation, the economic calendar and what moves currencies.
13 articles
Inflation, CPI, Gold and the Dollar: Core, MoM/YoY, Base Effects, Real Yields
What CPI and core CPI measure, why YoY can fall while prices rise at the same pace, how PCE differs, and the chain from an inflation print to real yields, USD and gold.
9 min readThe Thai Gold Price Formula: World Gold, USDTHB and Why It Differs From XAUUSD
A 96.5% Thai gold bar holds 14.71 g of fine gold per baht-weight. Convert spot and USDTHB step by step, and see why a strong baht can cancel a gold rally.
8 min readCommodity Currencies: How Tightly CAD Tracks Oil and AUD Tracks Iron Ore
Why the Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Norwegian currencies follow commodity prices, why that correlation drifts and flips, and how not to open the same bet twice.
9 min readImplied Volatility: What the FX Options Market Tells Spot Traders
You don't need to trade options to use their data. Turn IV into the market's expected range, read risk reversals and butterflies, and know the limits.
10 min readThe First Seconds After Big News: Spread, Slippage and Straddles
What happens in the seconds after NFP, CPI and FOMC, why stop orders fill worse, a worked straddle that loses on both legs, and how to measure your own slippage.
11 min readCheap or Expensive Currency? PPP, the Big Mac Index and Why It Can't Time Trades
Measure whether a currency is "cheap" or "expensive" with PPP, the Big Mac Index and REER, with a worked example and a simulation of how long overvaluation lasts.
8 min readThe Carry Trade: Earning the Rate Gap Every Night, and Why It Can Crash in Days
Borrow a low-yield currency, hold a high-yield one, collect swap nightly. Theory (UIP) says the gain should vanish, the data disagrees, and the crashes are fast.
10 min readThe CFTC COT Report: Reading Fund Positioning in Futures and the COT Index
The COT report shows which side big players hold in gold and currency futures. Read net positions, use the COT index to spot extremes, and know the lag.
9 min readThe Dollar Index (DXY): Why Half of It Is Really EURUSD
DXY measures the dollar against 6 currencies with weights fixed since 1973, and the euro takes 57.6%. The real formula, a worked example, and how to read USD-wide moves.
7 min readThe Gold/Silver Ratio: How to Read It and How a Gold-Silver Spread Works
The gold/silver ratio measures silver's value against gold, not price direction. How to read it, why its average is no magnet, and a spread worked step by step.
10 min readRisk-on / Risk-off: How the Yen, Franc, Gold and the VIX Read Market Mood
Where money goes when markets turn brave or scared, what the VIX measures, why safe havens aren't always safe, and why correlations jump towards 1 in a panic.
10 min readHow to read an economic calendar: Actual, Forecast, Previous and Thai time
Read an economic calendar column by column, convert US news times to Thai time (UTC+7) correctly across clock changes, and prepare before big news.
5 min readWhen interest rates rise or fall, why do currencies and gold move?
Why central bank rate meetings move currencies and gold, and why the market reacts to the gap from what was expected, not just the number itself.
4 min read