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Technical analysis
Support and resistance, trends, candlesticks and the indicators traders use most.
33 articles
Keltner Channels Explained: EMA ± ATR, vs Bollinger Bands, and the Squeeze
Keltner Channels are an EMA 20 ± 2 ATR. The history, a worked example, how they differ from Bollinger Bands, the squeeze, and a test on synthetic data.
11 min readSupertrend Tested: The Full Formula, Why It Looks Accurate, Where Ranges Hurt
The Supertrend formula step by step, the 10 and 3 defaults, a worked example, a test on 4 simulated markets with spread, and how to use it as a trailing stop.
12 min readTrending or Mean-Reverting? Measure It with the Variance Ratio and Hurst
If bars were independent, k-bar variance would be k times one-bar variance. Computing VR and Hurst on simulated prices, how noisy short samples are, and how to use them.
11 min readSeasonality Tested: Is There Really a Best Day or Month to Trade?
Seasonal charts say gold rises this month or that day is best, but pure random numbers draw the same charts. How to test day-of-week, monthly and Sell in May effects.
13 min readVolume in Forex: What Tick Volume, VWAP and Volume Profile Can Really Tell You
Spot forex has no central volume, and MT5 shows tick volume. Compute VWAP from candles step by step, plus SD bands, volume profile, POC, the 70% value area and limits.
11 min readChart Patterns Tested: Head and Shoulders, Double Bottoms, Triangles, Flags
Clear definitions of head and shoulders, double tops and bottoms, triangles, flags and wedges, how to measure targets, where to put the Stop loss, and our gold backtests.
12 min readHeikin Ashi and Renko Charts: When They Show the Trend and When They Mislead
The Heikin Ashi formula with a 3-bar worked example, how Renko bricks form, why prices on these charts can't be traded, and why HA backtests look too good.
9 min readSession Range Breakout: Morning Box, Asian Range and ORB Tested on Gold
The time-of-day breakout: morning box, Asian range before London and the opening range breakout. Box, OCO entries, stops, targets and a 5-year backtest on gold.
10 min readTrendlines and Price Channels: Draw Them by Rules, Not by Feel
How to draw trendlines with clear rules. Join swing lows, confirm with a third touch, wicks or bodies, log scale, parallel channels, breaks and retests, ATR stop buffers.
8 min readCurrency Strength Meters: Built From 28 Pairs, and Where They Mislead
A strength meter turns the % changes of 28 pairs into one score per currency. The calculation step by step, choosing a lookback, strongest vs weakest, and the traps.
9 min readElliott Wave, Honestly: The 3 Rules, Multiple Counts and Stop Placement
Elliott Wave from the 5-wave impulse and 3-wave correction, the three hard rules versus guidelines, why one chart has several valid counts, and invalidation as a stop.
9 min readRound Numbers 00 and 50: Why Orders Cluster There and Where to Put Your Stop
Carol Osler's research found take profits pile up exactly at round numbers and stops a few pips beyond. The mechanism, the limits, and how to place and size your stop.
9 min readSmart Money Concepts (SMC) Explained: BOS, CHoCH, Order Blocks and Real Tests
SMC term by term (HH/HL, BOS, CHoCH, order blocks, breakers, premium/discount), structure marked by fixed rules, and order blocks tested against decoy zones on gold.
10 min readDoes Trend Following Work? What Time-series Momentum Research Says
What research on trend following across many markets found, why it means many small losses and a few big wins, and why one-market retail versions swing far more.
10 min readWyckoff and the Power of Three (AMD) Explained, and Tested
Wyckoff accumulation and distribution phase by phase, from the SC and Spring to the UTAD, plus ICT's Power of Three, then what happens when both are tested as rules.
12 min readCandlestick Patterns: Pin Bar, Engulfing, Doji, Where to Put the Stop, and Tests
Candlestick patterns defined with clear numbers (pin bar, engulfing, inside bar, doji, morning star), the context that matters, Stop loss placement, and what tests show.
9 min readMulti-Timeframe Analysis: Using H4, H1 and M15 Top-Down Without Confusion
Top-down analysis: the higher timeframe for direction, the middle for the setup, the lower for the trigger. Ratios of 4–6×, how candles combine, conflicts and stops.
10 min readPivot Points Explained: Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla Formulas and Uses
Calculate pivot points from yesterday's high, low and close step by step, compare Classic, Fibonacci and Camarilla, and see why the day cut-off changes the levels.
8 min readSupport, Resistance and Supply/Demand Zones: How to Draw Them, Tested on Gold
Draw support and resistance from swings as zones, understand role reversal, define Supply/Demand zones as base + departure, and see where zones helped in gold backtests.
10 min readADX and DMI Explained: Measure Trend Strength and Pick the Right Tool
Wilder's ADX, +DI and −DI formula step by step with a worked example, how to read 20 and 25, DI crossovers, and using ADX to choose trend tools or range tools.
9 min readBollinger Bands Explained: The Squeeze, %B, Bandwidth and Band Touches
Bollinger Bands are a 20 SMA ± 2 standard deviations. A worked example, %B, Bandwidth, the squeeze, walking the band, and why a touch is not a signal.
7 min readDonchian Channel Explained: Trading Breakouts the Turtle Way
The Donchian Channel formula (highest high, lowest low, midline), the Turtle 20-bar entry and 10-bar exit, ATR-based stops and how to handle false breakouts.
8 min readCombining Indicators Without Redundancy: One Tool per Family
Sort indicators into four families (trend, momentum, volatility, volume), see why three oscillators are one opinion repeated, and build a small toolkit you can test.
8 min readDivergence Explained: Regular vs Hidden, How to Draw It and Use It
The four types of divergence between price and RSI, MACD or Stochastic, how to draw them correctly, why they repeat in strong trends, confirmation and Stop loss.
9 min readIchimoku Cloud Explained: The 5 Lines, the Cloud and a Worked Example
All five Ichimoku lines, the 9/26/52 midpoint formulas, why the cloud is shifted 26 bars ahead, reading the cloud, TK crosses and Kijun, and where it misleads.
8 min readMACD Explained: Reading the MACD Line, Signal Line and Histogram
What MACD's name means, the 12 26 9 EMA formula, crossovers, the zero line and the histogram, with a worked example and the places MACD misleads most.
8 min readPrice Hits the Old High: Ride It or Fade It? 5 Years of Gold Tests
Does price break or reverse at the previous swing's extreme? We measured gold M1 2022–2026, tested ride and fade systems, and show why fading lost in trend years.
8 min readRSI Explained: Wilder's Formula, 70/30, and Why Overbought Can Keep Rising
RSI from Wilder's formula with a worked 14-period example, how to read 70, 30 and 50, the range shift in trends, failure swings and RSI as a trend filter.
9 min readIs Trading M1 a Good Idea? Why Spread Eats More Profit Than on M15
Smaller timeframes move less per bar but the spread stays the same, so costs take a bigger share. Worked math, gold M15 vs M1 backtests, and reading spread in MT5.
8 min readStochastic Oscillator Explained: %K, %D, 5,3,3 vs 14,3,3 and How to Use It
A plain guide to the Stochastic. The %K and %D formula, fast vs slow, a step-by-step example, the 80/20 zones, crosses, and why it stays pinned in strong trends.
8 min readWhat Is ICT? Liquidity Sweeps, FVG, OTE and Real Tests on Gold
Common ICT terms made simple, including liquidity sweep, MSS, FVG, OTE and Silver Bullet, plus backtest results for 3 setups on gold M1 over almost 5 years.
6 min readHow to Use Fibonacci and Which Levels Most Traders Actually Watch
Fibonacci Retracement and Extension explained. Where 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 0.786, 1.272 and 1.618 come from, how to draw them the right way round, with real price math.
5 min readMoving Average Types and the MAs Traders Use Most
How SMA, EMA, WMA, SMMA and HMA differ, with worked math, plus the popular 9, 20, 21, 50, 100 and 200 lines for trend, dynamic support/resistance and crossovers.
4 min read