How to read an economic calendar: Actual, Forecast, Previous and Thai time
Read an economic calendar column by column, convert US news times to Thai time (UTC+7) correctly across clock changes, and prepare before big news.
- An economic calendar tells you when each release comes out, what the market expects and what the last figure was
- Price moves on the gap from what the market expected, not the raw number
- US news in Thai time shifts by one hour when the US changes its clocks
- Around big news, spreads widen and slippage can happen, so decide in advance what you'll do
An economic calendar is a schedule showing which countries release economic figures or hold central bank meetings each day, at what time, and what the market expects. Traders use it to know ahead of time when price might spike, so big news doesn’t catch them off guard.
What each column means
Almost every calendar site uses similar columns.
| Column | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Time | When the figure is released. Depends on the time zone you set |
| Currency | The currency of the country releasing it, e.g. USD EUR JPY |
| Impact | Impact level, usually low, medium or high |
| Actual | The figure actually released. Blank until the news comes out |
| Forecast | What most analysts expect. Some sites call it Consensus |
| Previous | The figure from last time |
Sometimes the Previous figure is revised along with the new release, because the agency updates the old number with more complete data. So the market looks at both the new figure and the revised old one together.
Each site rates Impact differently. Use it as a rough guide, not an exact measure.
Markets watch the “gap”, not the number
Price mostly already reflects what the market expected. What makes price spike when news comes out is the part that differs from the Forecast.
- If the figure is much better than expected, the market has to adjust its view fast, and price often moves hard
- If the figure comes out close to expectations, price may barely move, even for high-impact news
- If the figure is good but the previous figure was revised down a lot, the overall picture may come out neutral
That’s why just looking at whether a figure went “up” or “down” isn’t enough.
News doesn’t tell you which way price will go. It only tells you when price is likely to move harder than usual.
News that gold and dollar traders watch
Gold is traded in US dollars, so US news often affects both USD pairs and gold. Releases that are often rated high impact include:
- NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), the US non-farm employment figure. Released once a month, usually on the first Friday
- CPI (Consumer Price Index), used to measure inflation. Released once a month
- Fed rate meetings (FOMC), which announce the policy rate followed by a press conference. 8 times a year
Other countries have similar releases, such as inflation figures and rate meetings in the eurozone, the UK and Japan. Whatever pair you trade, watch the news for both currencies in it.
Converting US news times to Thai time
Many US economic releases, including NFP and CPI, come out at 8:30 New York time. The tricky part is that the US changes its clocks twice a year, while Thailand doesn’t.
- During US daylight saving time (second Sunday of March to first Sunday of November), New York is 4 hours behind UTC
- For the rest of the year, New York is 5 hours behind UTC
- Thailand is 7 hours ahead of UTC all year
Working out an 8:30 New York release:
| Period | New York time | In UTC | In Thai time |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daylight saving | 8:30 | 8:30 + 4 = 12:30 | 12:30 + 7 = 19:30 |
| Standard time | 8:30 | 8:30 + 5 = 13:30 | 13:30 + 7 = 20:30 |
FOMC decisions are usually announced at 14:00 New York time. The same method gives 14:00 + 4 + 7 = 25:00, which is 01:00 the next day in Thai time, or 02:00 during standard time.
The easiest way is to set your calendar’s time zone to your own (GMT+7 for Thailand) and let the site convert for you. But know how it works, so you can spot it if the setting is wrong.
When news comes out, costs change
In the few minutes around big news, it’s not only price that changes.
- Spread, the gap between the buy and sell price, often widens
- Slippage, getting an entry or exit price different from what you asked for, happens more often, especially with pending orders that trigger when price passes through
- Price can jump past your Stop loss and close at a worse price than you set
A made-up example: you hold a gold Buy with a Stop loss 3.00 USD away. A Buy is closed at the bid (sell) price. Suppose the mid price doesn’t move at all, but the spread widens from 0.30 to 2.00.
- The spread widened by 2.00 − 0.30 = 1.70
- If it widens equally on both sides, the bid drops by 1.70 ÷ 2 = 0.85
- 0.85 ÷ 3.00 ≈ 28% of the distance to your Stop loss is gone, without the market moving against you at all
These numbers are for illustration. Real spreads differ by broker and by release, but the direction is the same: the tighter your Stop loss, the higher the risk of being stopped out by news-time costs.
Decide what you’ll do before the news comes out. Don’t decide while the chart is spiking.
Build a news-checking habit
- At the start of every week, open the calendar, filter for the currencies you trade and high-impact news, and note the dates and times
- Every morning, check again, because some releases get moved or added
- Set clear rules for yourself, such as no new trades for a set number of minutes before and after high-impact news, or smaller trade size if you must hold through news
- If you use an EA, check whether it has a news filter. If not, know that it will trade through news too
Common mistakes
- Setting the wrong time zone, or forgetting the US clock change, so news arrives an hour earlier or later than expected
- Looking only at Actual without comparing it with Forecast and the revised Previous
- Thinking high-impact news always moves hard, and placing pending orders on both sides in advance
- Using a Stop loss as tight as usual while knowing you’ll hold through news
Frequently asked questions
Does high-impact news always make price move hard?
Not always. If the number comes out close to what the market expected, price may barely move. The impact level in a calendar only says this release has often moved the market strongly. It says nothing about the direction or size this time.
Why don't the news times in my calendar match what my friend says?
Usually because the time zones are set differently. Set your calendar to your own time zone (GMT+7 for Thai time), and don't use your broker's server time, which is often different.
This is general education, not investment advice. Trading is risky and you may lose all of your capital.